Shippers have benefited from largely favorable trucking conditions for several years—even during this year’s peak season. So as the leader of C.H. Robinson’s North American Surface Transportation division, I recognize that many of our customers haven’t seen a tight market in quite some time.
Here are the trends I’m watching heading into 2026, and my best advice to get ready.
Prepare for tighter trucking supply
The prolonged period of low freight demand and rising operational costs for carriers continues to thin their ranks. Tighter U.S. regulations are expected to accelerate this trend.
Those include a pause on certain work visas, greater enforcement of English language requirements, stricter rules for licensing drivers who live outside the country or state where the license was issued, and a forced shutdown of thousands of driver training programs. While none of those factors individually would put much of a dent in trucking capacity, together they exert more pressure on the owner-operators that make up the majority of U.S. trucking firms and may deter new owner-operators from entering the business.
According to our latest projections, truckload capacity is expected to return to a more normalized level in the first half of 2026— sometime between February and June. Our forecasts for temp-control and flatbed capacity are already approaching the range of historic norms, so the supply of some equipment types may change faster than others.
Prepare now, to ensure you have the right capacity where and when you need it.
For most sectors, demand is unlikely to strain trucking capacity
The other side of the supply and demand equation is how much competition there will be for available trucks. Little evidence points to a substantial increase in freight volumes in 2026, but we’re watching demand signals in certain industries as we gauge the pace of carriers leaving the market.
Some retailers expect a modest inventory reload after the holidays, remaining cautious about carrying costs and the economic outlook for lower- to middle-income shoppers. Likewise, some food and beverage makers anticipate smaller 2026 orders, reflecting evolving consumption trends. On the positive side, housing construction could ramp up if the Fed continues lowering interest rates in 2026, and we know each new home generates roughly eight truckloads of freight.
The growth of manufacturing in Mexico will continue to be a driver for cross-border freight. Despite contraction in the automotive industry there, Mexico is now the biggest supplier of auto parts to Canada. And declines in auto manufacturing have been more than offset by historic strength in tech and machinery manufacturing.
This is pushing more freight through crossings like El Paso, Texas, where we’ve added 450,000 sq. ft. in cross-dock and warehousing space to serve the growth. Shippers looking to streamline their Mexico supply chains can also take advantage of our new cross-border freight consolidation service.
The latest available statistics show overall exports from Mexico set a record in September and rose again in the double digits in October. How those trade flows look in 2026 will be affected by the renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement. The public nature of the talks themselves could create short-term hiccups, but a new agreement could also stimulate growth in certain sectors.
Whatever or wherever you’re shipping, my team is ready to lend their expertise in your specific industry.
Modest trucking rate increases projected for 2026
Steady capacity reduction and the rebalancing of trucking supply and demand is expected to translate into modest rate increases. We just revised our 2026 C.H. Robinson spot rate forecast, raising it from a 4% year-over-year increase to 6% as our model indicates more volatility in rates the closer the market gets to equilibrium. Spot rate changes also influence contractual rates, and broadly speaking, contractual rates follow spot rates more closely in the transition from a soft to tight market.
In keeping with normal seasonal fluctuations, rates in Q1 2026 are projected to decline from their December year-end high but not as steeply as they did in 2024 and 2025. When they increase in Q2 as they typically do with the onset of produce and beverage seasons, they’ll be starting from a higher point and will likely end up at a higher point than in 2024 or 2025.
A multitude of factors can change our forecast. Check it monthly in the C.H. Robinson Edge Report.
While rates overall are expected to follow a stable pattern, individual shippers with “lumpy” demand may experience more volatile swings in transportation costs. If inventory forecasting difficulties or tariff changes throw off the flow of your freight, you may find carriers rejecting bursts of freight they don’t want to accommodate or even rejecting tenders that are smaller than expected—causing your route guide to break unevenly. As you proceed down your route guide, the delay typically results in you paying a higher and higher premium as you move through carriers to get your freight covered.
Lean AI can help offset cost pressures and increase your speed to market in any environment. AI agents perform shipping tasks in seconds instead of hours or minutes. The faster you get a quote, the faster your order is processed, the faster you get ideal pickup and delivery appointments, the faster you’re matched with the ideal carrier. Getting your product to market faster helps you win against your competitors.
LTL shippers face ripple effects from truckload market
Since one of the largest and lowest-cost less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers went out of business in 2023, not all of their capacity came back into the industry. Soft market conditions have made that manageable for most shippers. Many LTL carriers continue to report declines in tonnage and volume. But as truckload capacity tightens and rates rise, this tends to push smaller shipments back into the LTL market.
LTL tonnage is expected to stay slightly negative year over year for the first half of 2026, before growing in the second half. Mid-single-digit rate increases are expected, similar to the nearly 5% year-over-year average growth in the LTL Producer Price Index over the past three decades.
While it may seem counterintuitive to raise rates in a sluggish market, the pool of less-than-truckload carriers is limited and they’re in a better position to recoup higher operating costs like labor, insurance, and equipment.
Several carriers have already announced general rate increases. These primarily affect shippers without contractual pricing agreements. For our customers who depend more on the spot market for their LTL freight, touch base with us for help offsetting the impact of GRIs and ensuring consistent service in the year ahead.
For shippers with lumpy shipping demand, this may impact transit times. LTL networks are designed for smooth, consistent freight flows. Spikes in freight may not only result in higher costs but also delays. Consider building in longer lead times.
Strategies for Q1 RFPs or upcoming mini-bids
Review your carrier scorecard
Or develop one if you don’t have one. Evaluate not only who has performed best for you in recent conditions—when capacity has been ample and rates hovered at the cost of operating a truck—but also who’s in position to perform best when the market tightens.
Rationalize your carriers
Fewer, stronger relationships with logistics providers generally benefits a shipper more than a lengthy route guide. With more volume, preferred carriers tend to offer more consistent tender acceptance and service levels—and can bundle value-added services for you.
Segment your freight
Don’t treat all your lanes equally. Understand which are worth putting out to bid, which should be awarded directly to a carrier because they map closely to the carrier’s network, and which should be left for the spot market because of low volume or spotty freight. Segmenting your freight will help you get the desired level of service at the best rates and avoid the hidden costs of ghost freight.
Strategically bundle your spot freight
Our research with MIT shows it pays to include spot freight in your route guide—both planned and unexpected freight—and that where you position it in your route guide also matters.
Bid your live load and drop trailer freight together
We see too many shippers separate those into different RFPs. Put together, you can optimize across both, manage the aggregate cost of your operations, and flex between live load and drop trailer when it’s advantageous.
For more ways to put your freight shipping on a path to success in 2026, check out our ocean shipping, air freight, and trade policy trends to watch and our global 2026 Freight Market Outlook.
