As new trade frameworks are set, businesses face shifting cost structures, compliance challenges, and strategic opportunities. Understanding these changes is critical for companies navigating international supply chains and seeking to maintain competitiveness in a rapidly changing trade environment.
2026 is poised to bring more trade turbulence reminiscent of 2025. Whether driven by tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), Sections 232 and 301, or new measures under Sections 122 or 338—still unused by this administration—the result will be equally complex and challenging to navigate. Businesses must move beyond reactive measures, embracing agility and proactive strategies to stay ahead of accelerating trade shifts.
As companies plan for 2026, here are the most relevant tariff trends emerging from 2025 and what they signal for shippers navigating the year ahead:
Deals between the U.S. and its trade partners have made import costs increasingly fluid
Trade agreements in 2025 introduced significant volatility in tariff rates, reshaping import costs across multiple sectors. Country-specific tariffs under IEEPA and sector-specific tariffs under Section 232 were repeatedly adjusted as negotiations unfolded. One of the most notable examples was China’s 125% IEEPA reciprocal tariff, which received a 90-day suspension following a U.S.–China trade deal in Geneva in May 2025. That pause was later extended for an additional year, and the IEEPA China Fentanyl tariff was reduced from 20% to 10%.
Similar agreements impacted other major trade partners. Caps of 15% were placed on IEEPA Reciprocal tariffs for the European Union (EU), Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein. Certain Section 232 tariffs also saw reductions through negotiated agreements, benefiting the United Kingdom, Japan, the EU, South Korea, and goods qualifying under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). These changes rippled through customs operations, requiring new tariff codes and creating uncertainty around retroactive corrections, duty refunds, and eligibility tied to export and entry dates.
Concessions are key to establishing reduced rates
Tariff reductions don’t happen in isolation; they’re earned through concessions. Market access, procurement rights, and measurable commitments on sensitive sectors often serve as bargaining chips that unlock lower duty rates.
In 2025, this played out repeatedly. Caps on IEEPA tariffs for the EU, Japan, and South Korea were tied to technology and supply chain transparency commitments. Likewise, reduced Section 232 rates for steel and aluminum hinged on partner measures to curb transshipment and overcapacity. Domestic demand and domestic capacity to produce certain products with measurable reciprocity informed agricultural concessions.
What further changes may we see in 2026?
Shippers should expect 2026 to be a year of enforcement and recalibration. Trade authorities will scrutinize whether partners have met the measurable commitments embedded in 2025 agreements—on technology standards, supply chain transparency, and capacity controls. Countries falling short could face restored or even higher duty rates, adding volatility to cost structures.
Beyond trade deal compliance, Section 301 and USMCA should receive importer attention. While the U.S. Trade Representative has delayed new Section 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductors, January 1 increases on Chinese medical gloves, face masks, lithium-ion batteries, natural graphite, and permanent magnets are now in effect. Meanwhile, the scheduled joint review of USMCA could trigger adjustments to rules of origin and labor provisions, reshaping eligibility for preferential rates.
For businesses, this means tariff strategy cannot be static. Agility, through scenario planning, origin optimization, and policy awareness, is essential to stay ahead of what promises to be another dynamic year in global trade.
Stay informed
Developments in customs and trade continue to evolve—stay informed to be prepared:
