As the Lunar New Year approaches, the question for shippers is no longer whether the holiday will have an impact, but how to plan for it with greater precision and control.
With ocean volumes building through January ahead of mid-February factory shutdowns and air freight tightening later in the month, the window for proactive planning is already narrowing. Here’s a breakdown of the key trends shaping this year’s Lunar New Year holiday period and the practical steps shippers can take to plan more effectively.
Why Lunar New Year 2026 looks different
Supply chains are entering 2026 with more stability than in recent years, even as structural shifts such as long-term manufacturing diversification and new planning behaviors continue to reshape global trade.
Manufacturing diversification across Asia is now embedded into day-to-day operations rather than treated as a contingency plan. Inventory strategies are less about broad stockpiling and more about timing, flexibility, and scenario planning. Longer, more data-driven planning cycles are also reducing last-minute reactions around predictable events like Lunar New Year.
Three trends shaping Asia’s supply chains
Holiday conditions this year aren’t defined by a single pattern of disruption, but by a set of distinct, interconnected trends. Manufacturing schedules, transportation capacity, and inventory strategies are evolving in more targeted ways, creating variability that shippers need to plan for at a more granular level.
-
Manufacturing: extended ramp-downs and variable restart timing
Lunar New Year manufacturing impacts extend beyond the official holiday dates. Many manufacturers begin winding down production one to two weeks ahead of the break, while restart timelines vary by country, sector, and the dynamics of when workers return. This variability reinforces the importance of planning around each of your suppliers rather than assuming a uniform regional shutdown. -
Transportation and capacity: targeted adjustments vs. broad changes
Ahead of Lunar New Year, ocean volumes are moving earlier to beat factory closures, creating localized pressure on select Asia-origin trade lanes. Imports into the United States are expected to rise briefly ahead of mid-February, with a short, intense surge that elevates activity around ports, drayage, and inland distribution.At the same time, carriers continue to manage capacity selectively. Blank sailings and service adjustments are affecting schedule reliability on certain lanes without creating broad market tightening. Overcapacity in the global container fleet suggests sustained pressure in the market is unlikely beyond the pre-holiday spike.
Air freight markets show a similar pattern. January demand opened softer, but volumes are expected to rebound sharply in late January as shippers position cargo. Capacity tightening later in the month could place upward pressure on rates, particularly on Asia-to-North America and Asia-to-Europe lanes.
Rather than systemic disruption, capacity dynamics this season are increasingly lane- and mode-specific. Read the full updates in our January Edge Report.
-
Inventory and planning behavior: flexibility over volume
As shippers move away from keeping a buffer of inventory, item-level visibility enables more targeted decisions. Understanding where critical orders and SKUs sit allows teams to advance, delay, or reprioritize shipments ahead of Lunar New Year without overcorrecting across their entire supply chain.
Five tips to help shippers navigate Lunar New Year 2026
To help shippers respond effectively to these evolving conditions, here are five actionable tips to guide your Lunar New Year planning:
-
Plan by lane and mode. Lunar New Year impacts vary widely by origin, destination, and transportation mode. Segment your planning by ocean and air freight, and focus on the trade lanes that matter most to your network rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach.
-
Build time-based flexibility into inventory positioning. Instead of relying solely on higher inventory levels, prioritize flexibility in timing. Stagger shipments ahead of factory shutdowns where possible, and build in options to adjust as conditions evolve before and after the holiday.
-
Treat capacity as targeted risk, not systemwide disruption. Capacity constraints are increasingly lane and mode specific. Prioritize lanes, suppliers, and SKUs that are most sensitive to disruption rather than assuming broad, market-wide tightening. If you have a dual-sourcing strategy in place, you can reduce dependency on a single origin, smooth capacity risk, and maintain continuity of supply even when specific corridors tighten unexpectedly.
-
Align production and logistics planning now. Earlier coordination with suppliers and logistics partners can reduce last-minute pressure. Smoothing production and shipment schedules supports more predictable execution before and after the holiday period.
-
Plan beyond the holiday. Post-holiday ramp-ups vary by market, labor availability, and congestion at key gateways. Factoring restart timelines into Q1 planning can help maintain continuity once manufacturing resumes.
A key moment within a broader cycle
Lunar New Year remains an important inflection point, but in 2026, it’s best viewed as one moment within a broader, more deliberate planning cycle. Shippers that focus on timing, flexibility, and segmented decision-making are better positioned to navigate the season without overcorrecting.
C.H. Robinson will continue providing freight market insights in our monthly Edge Report and real-time client advisories, helping shippers make informed decisions as the year unfolds.
